Will fatalities among motorcyclists eventually overtake motor vehicle drivers?

The gap seems to be closing between fatalities among motor vehicle drivers and motorcyclists.  Will they converge about about 10,000pa and then cross over?  In what year will motorcyclist fatalities exceed those of drivers?

USA fatalities Drivers v Motorcyclists

Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration http://www.nhtsa.gov/NCSA

About John Culvenor

Hi, Thank you for taking a look at this blog. I work in engineering, ergonomics, creativity, design, training, etc. Often this is about helping solve legal puzzles through accident analysis. Sometimes it is about thinking up better designs for equipment, workplaces, and systems. This blog is about good design and bad design, accident analysis and how it can be done better, and how we can make a better, safer world by design!
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2 Responses to Will fatalities among motorcyclists eventually overtake motor vehicle drivers?

  1. Tracy Scaroni says:

    Hi John

    An important factor when considering motorcycle fatalities from my perspective is to compare the percentage that motorcycles make up of vehicle registrations against their representation in crash statistics. For example in Queensland in 2012 based on preliminary data, motorcycle rider fatalities made up 21.4% of fatalities but only make up 4% of vehicle registrations.

  2. Hi Tracy, Yes, indeed. Obviously there is a vast difference in safety. So much so that even with much less use than cars it looks as though in the USA that motorcycles may surpass cars at some stage. A car was obviously better at the outset and is also ever evolving and improving in crash-worthiness but the motorcycle, while it may be improving somewhat, is not generally speaking. It raises a question about the rather odd subsidies for dangerous modes of transport. In Victoria, Australia, the government encourages the use of dangerous vehicles through compulsory insurance subsidies. Is that the same in Queensland? On one hand the government says reducing the road toll is important and on the other has a policy of a counteracting nature. If the premium matched the risk it is logical that the road toll would fall considerably the following year.

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